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First listen and then answer the following question.
听录音，然后回答以下问题。
Why do small errors make it impossible to predict the weather system with a high degree of accuracy?
Beyond two or three days, the world's best weather forecasts are speculative, and beyond six or seven they are worthless.
The Butterfly Effect is the reason．For small pieces of weather----and to a global forecaster, small canmean thunderstorms and blizzards----any prediction deteriorates rapidly．Errors and uncertainties multiply, eddies that only satellites can see.
The modern weather models work with a grid of points of the order of sixty miles apart, and even so, some starting data has to be guessed, since ground stations and satellites cannot see everywhere．But suppose the earth could be covered with sensors spaced one foot apart, rising at one-foot intervals all the way to the humidity, and any other quantity a meteorologist would want．Precisely at noon an infinitely powerful computer takes all the data and calculates what will happen at each point at 12.01, then 12.02, then 12.03 …
The computer will still be unable to predict whether Princeton, New Jersey, will have sun or rain on a day one month away．At noon the spaces between the sensors will hide fluctuations that the computer will not know about, tiny deviations from the average．By 12.01, those fluctuations will already have created small errors one foot away．Soon the errors will have multiplied to the ten-foot scale, and so on up to the size of the globe.
JAMES GLEICK, Chaos
New words and expressions 生词和短语
forecast(1.1)/'f&:k%:st/n.预报
grid（1.7）/grrd/n．坐标方格
speculative（1.1）/'spekj&l+trv/ adj．推测的
sensor(1.9)/'sens+/ n．传感器
blizzard (1.4)/'blIz+d/n．暴风雪
humidity (1.11) /hju:'mIdIti/n.湿度
deteriorate(1.4)/dI'tI+ri+reIt/v．变环，恶化
meteorologist(1.11)/'mi:ti+'r&lDNIst/n．气象学家
multiply (1.4)/'m)ltIpl%I/ v.增加
princeton (1.13)/'prInst+n/n．普林斯顿（美国城市名）
cascade(1.5) /k$'skeId/ v．瀑布似地落下
turbulent(1.5)/'t*:bjvl+nt/adj．狂暴的
New Jersey(1.13) /nju:-'DN*:zI/n．新泽西（美国州
dust devil(1.5)/'d)st-?dev+l/小尘暴，尘旋风名）
squall (1.5)/skw&:l/n．暴风
fluctuation (1.14)/?fl)ktMu'eIM+n/n．起伏，波动
eddy(1.6)/'edi/ n.旋涡
deviation(1.15)/?di:vi'eIM+n/ n.偏差
Notes on the text 课文注释
1 beyond two or three days, 超过两- 三天。
2 of the order of, 大约。
参考译文
世界上最好的两三天以上的天气预报具有很强的猜测性，如果超过六七天，天气预报就没有了任何价值。
原因是蝴蝶效应。对于小片的恶劣天气——对一个全球性的气象预报员来说，“小”可以意味着雷暴雨和暴风雪——任何预测的质量会很快下降。错误和不可*性上升，接踵而来的是一系列湍流的微状，从小尘暴和暴风发展到只有卫星上可以看到的席卷整块大陆的旋涡。
现代气象模型以一个坐标图来显示，图中每个点大约是间隔60英里。既使是这样，有些开始时的资料也不得不依*推测，因为地面工作站和卫星不可能看到地球上的每一个地方。假设地球上可以布满传感器，每个相隔1英尺，并按1英尺的间隔从地面一直排列到大气层的顶端。再假定每个传感器都极端准确地读出了温度、气压、湿度和气象学家需要的任何其他数据。在正午时分，一个功能巨大的计算机搜集了所有的资料，并算出在每一个点上 12∶01、12∶02、12∶03时可能出现的情况。 |
